THE GEOPOLITICS OF COFFEE:
BETWEEN GLOBAL POWER AND LOCAL HOPE

THE DIPLOMACY OF COFFEE

Originally from Africa, coffee has gradually acquired global socio-economic and environmental importance. Currently, the entire supply chain generates an estimated value of approximately $200 billion and involves over 25 million producers, spread across 80 countries in the geographical area between the two tropics, commonly referred to as the “Coffee Belt.”

Like all supply chains of colonial origin, the coffee supply chain is characterized by a clear distinction between areas of production and consumption. The former are mainly represented by countries in the global South, while consumption is concentrated in those in the North. This verticality gives rise to significant inequality, with actors in consumer countries benefiting from the most profitable stages, namely roasting and marketing, and thus able to control the entire supply chain.
The production, trade, and consumption of coffee have always intercepted and shaped global political and economic dynamics. The sector, in its complexity and economic scope, can in fact be defined as a true “ecosystem” in continuous evolution and adaptation. Consequently, in order to truly understand the dynamics of the supply chain, it is essential to contextualize them within the broader framework of international relations.

Historically, coffee has played a crucial role in European colonialism, contributing to the extraction of resources from the global South to the North, fueling conflicts, injustices, and inequalities, and strongly influencing the economic structures of producing countries.
Subsequently, its role as an instrument of soft power and diplomacy has gradually grown, becoming part of the dynamics of the Cold War, for example, as a means of consolidating the Western bloc’s sphere of influence and stabilizing the economies of allied countries.
Over time, with the total affirmation of global value chains, the supply chain has further strengthened its political dimension, presenting itself both as an instrument of globalization and as a result of it.
Currently, the worsening crisis of multilateralism, combined with an increasingly complex macroeconomic framework, is once again changing the “geopolitics of the cup,” leading to the emergence of new players and dynamics. In particular, US tariff policies and new restrictive European environmental regulations are creating fertile conditions for China to strengthen its position in the sector. Through coffee, China aims to expand its sphere of influence, especially in Africa, as demonstrated by the recent abolition of import tariffs for 53 African countries, including Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia.
The new trade agreements are therefore helping to rewrite the geopolitical balance on the continent, consolidating Beijing’s role in areas rich in coffee but also in minerals, strategic raw materials, and rare earth elements.  

WHAT DOES COFFEE TASTE LIKE?

Although the analysis of the coffee supply chain must necessarily be broad in scope, including different dimensions, there is a risk that “abusing” geopolitical thinking will distance us from the material reality and the main actors who really make up the sector, namely farmers.

Although small producers account for 70% of total coffee production, their fair integration into the global value chain remains problematic to this day. In fact, it is estimated that 44% of them live below the poverty line, with percentages that become even more dramatic when referring to the African context.
These conditions of economic insecurity are due to a multitude of factors. In particular, small farmers face both internal challenges within the supply chain, such as market volatility, power imbalances along the chain, and speculative dynamics, as well as external challenges, including the impacts of climate change.
The contradictions of the supply chain therefore emerge clearly when we consider the conditions of small farmers and can be summed up by a fact that is often ignored: many of the farmers who grow coffee do not know what it tastes like. The product of their labor travels thousands of miles, is processed, roasted, and served all over the world, but the final beverage remains a luxury item that is economically inaccessible to them. This paradox encapsulates the essence of the inequalities that run through the supply chain: on the one hand, a global market that generates billions in profits; on the other, farming communities that struggle to cover production costs and ensure their own subsistence.

It is precisely this contradiction that has given rise to alternative supply chain models, based on direct and transparent relationships between producers, roasters, and consumers, in which the value of coffee is measured not only in economic terms, but also from an environmental and ethical point of view. This demonstrates not only how alternative dynamics, aimed at a more equitable redistribution of the value produced, are in place, but also how the sector can act as a real “laboratory” of cooperation, involving institutional actors, civil society, and the private sector across the board.
In conclusion, the coffee supply chain is a useful tool for intercepting and understanding the transformations of the contemporary world. It clearly shows the inequalities and injustices that still affect countries in the Global South today. At the same time, it offers a glimmer of utopian hope, forcefully reminding us that in an era of rapid change, cooperation and collaborative approaches are the conditio sine qua non for ensuring a fair and sustainable future, starting with agricultural supply chains and extending to relations between nations.